Stratfor is the creation of George Friedman, a sometime political science professor and consultant to the intelligence community, and the author of America's Secret War: Inside the Hidden Worldwide Struggle Between America and Its Enemies (Doubleday, $24.95, 353 pages). As is true of many Americans, my feelings about the Iraq war — Was it necessary? Is it being waged properly? — have vacillated the past month.
Mr. Friedman does much to put my mind to rest. In his view, forget the debate over whether weapons of mass destruction ever existed, and whether they were a proper pretext for war. In his view, al Qaeda's goal was to create an uprising in the Islamic world and overthrow secular governments, Saudi Arabia in particular. The invasion ordered by President George W. Bush was intended to isolate and frighten the Saudi government into cracking down on the flow of money to al Qaeda. He succeeded. Further, the invasion created a climate in which it has proven too dangerous for Islamic governments to work with al Qaeda or remain neutral.
Which is not to say that Mr. Friedman gives Bush & Company high praise. He faults the administration for failing to put the military and intelligence communities on a wartime immediately after September 11, and charges that "lying about why we were invading Iraq was a massive error." Nonetheless, he feels that Iraq is "manageable, even though violence will continue for years. Like Northern Ireland, it will be a generation before it calms down." And he repeats a forecast first made by Stratfor in December 2003: that the American military eventually must invade northwestern Pakistan to root out the al Qaeda command structure.
Washington Times book review
Mr. Friedman does much to put my mind to rest. In his view, forget the debate over whether weapons of mass destruction ever existed, and whether they were a proper pretext for war. In his view, al Qaeda's goal was to create an uprising in the Islamic world and overthrow secular governments, Saudi Arabia in particular. The invasion ordered by President George W. Bush was intended to isolate and frighten the Saudi government into cracking down on the flow of money to al Qaeda. He succeeded. Further, the invasion created a climate in which it has proven too dangerous for Islamic governments to work with al Qaeda or remain neutral.
Which is not to say that Mr. Friedman gives Bush & Company high praise. He faults the administration for failing to put the military and intelligence communities on a wartime immediately after September 11, and charges that "lying about why we were invading Iraq was a massive error." Nonetheless, he feels that Iraq is "manageable, even though violence will continue for years. Like Northern Ireland, it will be a generation before it calms down." And he repeats a forecast first made by Stratfor in December 2003: that the American military eventually must invade northwestern Pakistan to root out the al Qaeda command structure.
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