Monday, November 29, 2004

Iraqi elections

Opinion polling consistently shows that 70% of Iraqis support a religious state (IRI Sept. 2004), and even larger numbers think that clerics should have a central role in politics and constitution-making (Gallup, April 2004). Moreover, Iraqis are not going to have a choice of secular or religious parties, since they are voting on a list system and the lists are mixed. Chalabi's Iraqi National Congress, e.g., is running on the same list with Dawa and the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq. But the upshot is that the INC will be swamped by the religious parties and by pro-Sistani notables.

Iyad Allawi has announced his own list, but I personally doubt it will do very well. His favorability numbers had fallen to only 47% in September, down from the 60s when he first came in, and my guess is that his standing has continued to fall because he has not done what he said he would do-- bring security.
Juan Cole post

Which makes the whole polling business academic. Or should.

In Samarra, where U.S. occupation forces launched a major offensive nearly two months ago to crush resistance there, Iraqi anti-occupation fighters overran a police station and seized weapons.

Several other bombing attacks saw another daily round of blood-letting across northern and western areas in Iraq.

Despite reinforcement of the U.S. troops in Iraq, the Pentagon acknowledged that anti-occupation rebels were getting better at disrupting U.S. forces.

Now, the American soldiers are relying more on air than road transport fearing possible attacks.

"They have had a growing understanding that where they can affect us is in the logistics flow," said Central Command deputy head Lieutenant General Lance Smith. "They have gotten more effective in using IEDs (improvised explosive devices)."
Aljazeera article


George W. Bush told reporters, "we will continue to make it clear to both Syria and Iran ... that meddling in the internal affairs of Iraq is not in their interest."

Provide your own commentary.

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