Under the grossly misnamed Help America Vote Act of 2002, voters whose names aren't on polling place registration lists, or whose eligibility is otherwise in question (e.g., because partisan goons have challenged them), will be handed a provisional ballot that legally cannot be counted until after election day, when the voter's eligibility is adjudicated according to whatever system the jurisdiction has worked out.
Try to wrap your mind around the following number: an estimated 5 percent of votes cast nationally today will be "provos." That's more than 5 million votes, and an estimated 250,000 in Ohio alone.
I've seen no evidence to suggest that exit polls have been designed to systematically include or exclude provos, but since the networks and other news organizations will be using AP-complied raw vote totals to "adjust" exit poll projections, it probably doesn't matter. Here's the bottom line: tonight's vote totals in many states will in all probability significantly undercount the Democratic vote, not only for president, but for Senate, House, and state and local offices as well. And that means (1) we can count on Republicans to issue victory claims in such cases, as in Florida in 2000; and (2) the adjudication and counting of provos could very well be the ball game, and will certainly be the subject of post-election day legal maneuvering and local election board shenanigans.
New Donkey postTry to wrap your mind around the following number: an estimated 5 percent of votes cast nationally today will be "provos." That's more than 5 million votes, and an estimated 250,000 in Ohio alone.
I've seen no evidence to suggest that exit polls have been designed to systematically include or exclude provos, but since the networks and other news organizations will be using AP-complied raw vote totals to "adjust" exit poll projections, it probably doesn't matter. Here's the bottom line: tonight's vote totals in many states will in all probability significantly undercount the Democratic vote, not only for president, but for Senate, House, and state and local offices as well. And that means (1) we can count on Republicans to issue victory claims in such cases, as in Florida in 2000; and (2) the adjudication and counting of provos could very well be the ball game, and will certainly be the subject of post-election day legal maneuvering and local election board shenanigans.
Will the fat lady sing, so's we'll know when it's over?
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